Macro views

2024 Strategist Outlook: Market drivers and detractors for 2H

September 03, 2024 - 2 min read

After seeing the S&P 500^® deliver 15.3% in the first half of 2024¹, investors faced big questions about how the markets are shaping up for the remainder of the year. Would the rally continue? Could central banks be successful in reining in inflation? When would the Fed cut rates? What would a contentious US election mean for markets?

These questions were posed in the 2024 Strategist Outlook survey taken by 30 economists and strategists in the Natixis Investment Managers family in July.

Garrett Melson, Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, Portfolio Strategist, and Kari Grant, Vice President of Government Relations, join Dave Goodsell, Executive Director of the Natixis Center for Investor Insight, to discuss macro, market and political implications.

Key takeaways:

Two-thirds of the 2024 Strategist Outlook survey respondents project US stocks will be the best of all regions in 2H.
US markets tend to have characteristics that investors want to pay up for in uncertain times: strong balance sheets, cash, little net debt and large margins.
The US and EU approach technology regulation differently; the EU may focus more on privacy and job security while national security could dominate the US debate.
Elections can be a source of market volatility in the near term but don’t usually matter as much in the long term.
Inflation is nearing the Fed’s 2% target by year-end.
The market’s focus has shifted from inflation to growth; growth is now clearly moderating.
Heightened geopolitical risk is here to stay – at least in the near future.

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IMPORTANT INFORMATION

¹ Natixis Portfolio Analysis & Consulting. FactSet.

“2H”: second half of the year

The data shown represents the opinion of those surveyed and may change based on market and other conditions. It should not be construed as investment advice.

The S&P 500^® Index is a widely recognized measure of US stock market performance. It is an unmanaged index of 500 common stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation, among other factors. It also measures the performance of the large-cap segment of the US equities market. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions are as of August 22, 2024, and may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.

All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided. Investors should fully understand the risks associated with any investment prior to investing.

CFA^® and Chartered Financial Analyst^® are registered trademarks owned by the CFA Institute.

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