The global economy is undergoing significant transitions that will shape the future of industries and markets. What do they look like today, how do we expect them to unfold over the next ten years, and what are their implications for businesses, investors, and policymakers?
From the rise of artificial intelligence and automation to the maturing conversations around sustainability and renewable energy, transitions are already underway that will reshape the way we live, work, and do business. At the same time, the investment landscape continues to evolve, with new opportunities and risks emerging across asset classes. As investors seek to navigate this changing environment, understanding the key trends and transitions that are shaping the future will be crucial for making informed decisions and capturing value. And that’s what Next Decade Investing is all about: we’ve brought together experts from across Natixis Investment Managers and asked them how they are assessing the key trends today, to provide you with the insights that can help you tomorrow.
Register to read 'Next decade investing'
Included in the white paper:
- How demographics impact investor behaviour
- The long-term outlook for emerging markets
- The impact of macroeconomic volatility on financial markets
- Equity and fixed income themes for the next decade
- Asset allocation and the evolution of the 60/40 portfolio
- Private assets in a climate-friendly economy
We are probably at the beginning of a new industrial revolution. We have to reduce our consumption of fossil fuels by 80% in 20 years, and we don't know how to do that. It feels like we have never had such a challenge as those currently in front of us, with the environmental, demographic, technological and industrial transitions.”
– Philippe Waechter, Chief Economist, Ostrum Asset Management
What really matters is what central banks think is happening, what kind of mistakes they're prepared to make, and where they’ll place their bets. When you have such a far reaching transition like the climate crisis, you need to be both aggressive and really careful analytically at the same time, because you don't want to go too far down one bad decision.”
– Jon Levy, Global Strategist, Loomis Sayles
In many respects, catching up with the US seems difficult – if not impossible – for the eurozone to hope to achieve. Where could the shockwaves come from that would enable Europe to suddenly organise itself better, move faster and show lucidity? And what if the 47th US President, Donald Trump, who could be the cause of a few short-term ills, were at the same time the solution to some of Europe’s medium-term problems?”
– Mabrouk Chetouane, Head of Global Market Strategy, Natixis IM Solutions
A world in transition
- An ageing population will likely lead to a decrease in labour-force participation and productivity. As more people retire, the working-age population shrinks, potentially leading to labour shortages and increased pressure on remaining workers4,6. However, if older workers remain healthy, they can continue contributing economically, mitigating some negative effects6.
- Ageing populations will increase dependency ratios, leading to higher public spending on pensions, healthcare, and social services. This will put significant pressure on public finances, especially in countries with generous state support for the elderly5,7.
- The shift in demographics is expected to lower real GDP growth rates. The extent of this impact will vary by country, with advanced economies facing more immediate challenges due to their already high age-related spending5,7.
- The demographic shift will be most pronounced in East and Southeast Asian economies like South Korea and Singapore, where the old-age dependency ratio is expected to increase significantly. In contrast, regions like sub-Saharan Africa, with higher birth rates, will experience these demographic changes more gradually7.
- As the consequences of climate change become more severe, competition over dwindling natural resources like water, arable land, and energy sources will intensify geopolitical tensions and conflicts, especially in vulnerable regions,8,11. This could destabilize already fragile areas and trigger mass migration and humanitarian crises.
- Countries' ability to mitigate and adapt to climate change will reshape global power dynamics. While advanced economies aim to decarbonize by 2035, many developing nations risk being left behind, lacking resources for an energy transition9. This could increase the influence of countries like China who can offer partnerships on green technology and financing8,12.
- Diverging national interests and mistrust between major powers like the U.S. and China over climate policies could further strain international cooperation and undermine the rules-based global order12. Fragmentation may impede collective action, as the world has already fallen behind emissions reduction targets10.
- Climate change will create new arenas of strategic competition between states, such as the Arctic, space, cyber governance, and climate engineering technologies8,11. This could exacerbate great power rivalries and militarization of regions.
- Domestic political pressures from Ageing populations, economic disruptions, and climate impacts could constrain countries' climate policies and ambitions8,11. This could fuel nationalism, populism, and a prioritization of narrow self-interests over global cooperation12.
1 1 Global Trends to 2035 - European Parliament https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/603263/EPRS_STU%282017%29603263_EN.pdf
2 Unveiling the Future: 10 Predictions for a Transformative 2035 https://datafloq.com/read/unveiling-future-10-predictions-transformative-2035/
3 2035 Vision: Ten Predictions for the Future - The Digital Speaker https://www.thedigitalspeaker.com/2035-vision-ten-predictions-future/
4 Implications of Population Ageing for Economic Growth https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w16705/w16705.pdf
5 The Economic Consequences of Ageing Populations https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/pages/publication11151_en.pdf
6 Health, an ageing labour force, and the economy - NCBI https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8505790/
7 The challenges of Ageing: Fast and slow - S&P Global https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/special-reports/look-forward/the-challenges-of-Ageing-fast-and-slow
8 'Global Trends to 2035' Geo-politics and international power https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EPRS_STU%282017%29603263
9 Geopolitics of climate impacts: implications for the UK's international ... https://www.csap.cam.ac.uk/news/article-geopolitics-climate-impacts-implications-uks-inter/
10 World Needs More Policy Ambition, Private Funds, and Innovation to ... https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/11/27/world-needs-more-policy-ambition-private-funds-and-innovation-to-meet-climate-goals
11 Global trends to 2035 | Oxford Analytica https://www.oxan.com/insights/global-trends-to-2035/
12 Climate politics: Why the old diplomacy no longer works https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/10/climate-politics-why-old-diplomacy-no-longer-works
Marketing communication. This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Views expressed in this article as of the date indicated are subject to change and there can be no assurance that developments will transpire as may be forecasted in this article. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments. Investment risk exists with equity, fixed income, and alternative investments. There is no assurance that any investment will meet its performance objectives or that losses will be avoided.