Consumer confidence plummets, but spending continues.

The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell for the third straight month, sinking 11.9% in March from February. While the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index^® fell for the fourth consecutive month in March. Despite such negative sentiment, hard data on retail sales, as measured by Johnson Redbook Same Store Sales Index, is holding up just fine.

Redbook retail sales

12/31/2024 to 3/21/2025

Source: Bloomberg

Johnson Redbook Same Store Sales Index continued to hover around a 5.5% growth rate through 3/21/2025, the same average as in 2024. (Source: Bloomberg)

There are some areas of sluggish sales, according to Jack Janasiewicz, Portfolio Manager, Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. “We are seeing new trends emerge in credit card spend data. Airfare and hotel spend saw a marked drop recently. We also note spenders are switching to more value-oriented retailers.”

This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The views and opinions contained herein reflect the subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis Investment Managers, or any of its affiliates. The views and opinions expressed may change based on market and other conditions. There can be no assurance that developments will transpire as forecasted, and actual results may vary.

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University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment: a monthly survey conducted by the University of Michigan that measures consumer confidence levels in current and future economic conditions.

Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index^®: a survey administered by the Conference Board and measures how consumers are feeling about their expected financial situation.

Johnson Redbook Same Store Sales Index: a weekly measure published by Redbook Research that provides insights into consumer spending by tracking sales performance of approximately 9,000 large U.S. retailers.

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